Tag: Donald Trump Jr.

Marshall Professor: Capitol Clash Exposes Nation’s Lack of Civic Education, Knowledge

The insurrection at the U.S. Capitol by pro-Trump extremists has thrown Congress into turmoil. Many are asking what to do about the president who encouraged the acts of the rioters who attacked the capitol building.

Mary Beth Beller is an associate professor of political science at Marshall University. Reporter Eric Douglas spoke with her to get some perspective on what brought us to this situation and what will happen moving forward.

This interview has been lightly edited for clarity.

Douglas: The attack last Wednesday on the U.S. Capitol was disturbing for most of America. I’m sure you were glued to the TV like most of us. What were your thoughts?

Beller: I think there are a couple of things that we need to take into very serious consideration. The first is that all of us, as Americans, have a very cherished right to protest against our government to petition for redress of grievances. It is right there in the Constitution. It’s a First Amendment right. And I think it must be respected at all times. That the second thing is, this protest was about trying to overturn an election that had been certified in all 50 states. It was a legal process in all 50 states. What began as a protest against something that had legally occurred, crossed the line and became an act of insurrection, which is illegal.

Douglas: Where do we go from here? We’ve heard a lot of discussion about the 25th Amendment or another impeachment. I understand the concerns, but do you really think that either one of those will have time to take place?

Beller: I don’t think it is possible that we’re going to invoke section four of the 25th Amendment because that rests on the president being incapacitated. That incapacity relies on a doctor’s evaluation. So that may not be possible. What could be possible is impeachment and the speaker (of the House of Representatives) has said that she’s prepared to start on that. It is also possible that the Senate and the House could vote to censure the president for starting an insurrection.

Douglas: The thought has crossed my mind that we would have a Nixonesque 11th-hour resignation when facing another impeachment. I wonder if that’s not more likely than running the impeachment through the full process.

Beller: President Donald Trump has said quite firmly that he will not resign. And President Nixon, for all of his faults, did respect institutions. He did not want to have the stain on his presidency, or the presidency as an office, of having impeachment. For a long time, it’s been speculated that President Trump would resign the day before he left office so that then-President Mike Pence could pardon him. Whether that is in the works, or whether a President Pence would actually do that is something that remains to be seen.

Douglas: There seems to be a real break since Wednesday between the vice president and the president. If that had been a possibility a few months ago, the likelihood of something like that happening seems to be much reduced.

Beller: Vice President Pence was a member of Congress. He respects the institution of Congress. He was fulfilling his constitutional duty on Wednesday. It has to be noted that he has a different regard for constitutional processes than President Trump does. The other thing we need to take into consideration is that Mike Pence, as Vice President, may have a political life left, and he needs to assess what’s going to be in his political interest going forward.

Douglas: What haven’t we talked about? What have we missed?

Beller: We have missed the elephant in the room and that is that we have thousands of Americans who do not possess the ability to discern fact from fiction. These people truly believe that there was a stolen election. Even in the face of the facts that show that there was no stolen election.

Douglas: Fifteen or 20 years ago, we would hear about people being radicalized online. This was all in reference to ISIS or al-Qaida, but it seems like we’re facing exactly the same thing.

Beller: We have failed in civics education. None of this should require a sophisticated degree. All Americans should know how they can get involved in the political process. Everybody should know it’s a right of every American to be able to do so. And it has been through social media, but also through a lot of networks that call themselves news. People don’t have the ability to discern between news and propaganda.

Has West Virginia’s Economy Boomed Since Trump, Justice Took Office?

President Trump has established a close relationship with West Virginia, the state that gave him his second-widest margin of victory in 2016. 

On July 21, Trump tweeted a boast about the state’s recent economic success:

“The Great State of West Virginia is producing record setting numbers and doing really well. When I became President, it was practically shut down and closed for business. Not anymore!”

Because the tweet’s vague phrasing is hard to measure mathematically, we won’t be rating the statement on the Truth-O-Meter. Instead, we will look at some key economic factors to get a rough sense of whether the state’s economic performance has turned on a dime since 2017, the year that both Trump and his ally, Gov. Jim Justice, took office.

Broadly speaking, we found that the state’s economic performance has improved during that period — but for several key statistics, that improvement continued the ongoing trend lines in place before Trump and Justice took office. (Justice was elected governor as a Democrat, but he switched to the Republican Party in 2017.)

For instance, here’s a look at the state’s unemployment rate since 2007. As with the other charts below, the red portions denote the tenures of Trump and Justice.

West Virginia’s unemployment rate in August 2019 was 4.6%, the lowest since the start of the Great Recession, and it has fallen from 5.3% in January 2017, when Trump and Justice took office.

However, as the chart shows, the state unemployment rate also fell under President Barack Obama and Justice’s Democratic predecessor, Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin. Indeed, the country’s unemployment rate as a whole has declined during that period, so this pattern was not unique to West Virginia.

We also looked at median household income in West Virginia:

This chart also shows good news for West Virginia — modest gains above the rate of inflation in 2017 and 2018. 

Here too, though, inflation-adjusted median income also rose in West Virginia in 2015 and 2016, before Trump or Justice took office. And the pattern in West Virginia was similar to what it was for the nation as a whole.

Here’s a look at food stamp use — one of the main statistics that measures the extent of poverty in the state and the nation.

The number of West Virginians on food stamps has declined since the start of 2017, which is positive news. However, the decline began several years before Trump and Justice took office, and it mirrors the pattern nationally.

Meanwhile, here’s a chart showing the change in quarterly gross domestic product for West Virginia. That’s a measure of all economic output in the state, compared to the previous quarter.

The quarterly GDP growth is good news, too, for West Virginia. In six quarters, the state saw an increase, compared to three quarters in which there was a decline. The quarterly increases ranged from about 2% to almost 10%.

That said, “it’s hard to attribute economic growth to any president’s policies,” said Eric Bowen, an energy economics specialist at West Virginia University. “In the case of West Virginia’s economic growth, I think you would have to consider the trends prior to the changeover in administration.” 

Perhaps the most striking improvement occurred in the labor-force participation rate. This is a statistic that calculates the percentage of West Virginia’s civilian, non-institutionalized population that is either working or looking for work. Economists say that a higher percentage is always preferable because it shows that a smaller share of the population is unable or unwilling to work.

Here’s a chart showing West Virginia’s labor force participation rate since 2007, about a year before the Great Recession hit.

The chart shows that prior to 2017, West Virginia’s labor-force participation rate was generally falling or stagnant. But since early 2017, it has risen consistently, even if not to pre-recession levels. 

This improvement is especially notable since the labor force participation rate for the country as a whole has been stable even as West Virginia’s has been rising.

However, it’s worth noting that after rough stability in population in the first half of the decade, West Virginia’s population shrank by about 25,000 people between 2016 and 2018. So while employment did increase, the rise in the labor force participation rate was magnified by the shrinkage in population. 

Having a shrinking population “doesn’t look so good for the economic outcomes in the state,” said Tara Sinclair, a George Washington University economist.

Finally, we looked at data for a specific industry that has been a key focus of policy attention for both Trump and Justice — mining and resource extraction. Both Trump and Justice have advocated easing environmental and regulatory restrictions on the mining and oil and gas sectors. West Virginia ranks near the top nationally in coal and is also a significant natural gas producer.

This chart shows the amount of economic output every quarter from mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction in the state:

The economic output has been on an upward trajectory since the start of 2017, though it also rose — somewhat more gradually — for several years prior.

However, it’s worth noting that the recent gains for the extraction sector are limited. Here’s a chart showing the number of employees in the extraction sector:

In other words, the sector has gained a few thousand jobs since its low point in 2016, but its current level remains far below its pre-recession level and even well below its peak in late 2011 and early 2012.

“For a variety of reasons — mostly due to low natural gas prices and a falloff in coal exports — the election year of 2016 was a particularly bad year for the state’s coal mining industry, and we have seen some rebound since then,” Bowen said. “But mining employment and production are still well below what they were as recently as 2011.”

The Bottom Line

Key economic statistics show that West Virginia is on an upward course. The most impressive turnaround since Trump and Justice entered office has been in the labor force participation rate.

Other statistics also show gains during their tenures, but in many cases those continued the trend lines seen under their predecessors, calling into question how much credit either can claim for the economic progress.

This article was originally published by PolitiFact.

Trump Boosts GOP Senate Candidate, Knocks Media During W.Va. Speech

President Donald Trump delivered remarks to a dinner crowd Tuesday in White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia, just ahead of the Fourth of July holiday and a golf tournament at a resort owned by Gov. Jim Justice.

In a half-hour speech delivered to active-service military, veterans and state Republican Party notables, Trump’s remarks were relatively subdued compared to past visits to West Virginia, touching mostly on military issues but veering occasionally to other subjects. 

Among the military personnel Trump acknowledged was World War II veteran Woody Williams.

“In the face of bullets and bayonets, he risked his life for his brothers-in-arms, and he earned the Congressional Medal of Honor,” Trump said.

“He has dedicated his life to supporting Gold Star families and building memorials to honor our fallen servicemembers. In 2016, thousands were moved by Woody’s patriotic words when he spoke at one of our rallies in West Virginia. He was incredible. I still remember it. And of course, we all remember that wonderful moment when Woody flipped the coin at this year’s Super Bowl,” the president added.

In another part of his military-focused remarks, Trump touted his idea for a “space force” to become the sixth branch of the U.S. Armed Forces. He said the branch would be the “greatest force for peace and justice in the history of the world.”

The president remained non-specific on the would-be function of such a military branch. Congress, which has remained lukewarm on the idea, would have to authorize any additional branch of the Armed Forces and allocate funding for it. 

“We are thinking very seriously about it because space is becoming very important militarily as well as other reasons,” Trump said.

The president also noted increases in military spending, as well as federal legislation passed to increase health care options for veterans, while decreasing wait times at Veterans Affairs facilities — known as the VA Choice program.

In addition to discussing various aspects of the military, Trump touched on immigration and his U.S. Supreme Court nominee. 

The vacancy on the bench follows Justice Anthony Kennedy’s retirement, which was announced last week. Conservatives see Kennedy’s retirement as an opportunity to overturn Roe v. Wade in an attempt to limit abortion rights.

Trump acknowledged the state’s congressional delegation in attendance at the event, notable military personnel and West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey.

“He is a tough, strong guy and he ran an incredible race against some very talented people — and he won,” Trump said of Morrisey’s current bid for U.S. Senate. “And now he has got another race. I see the polls have it very close.”

Morrisey, the Republican nominee, will square off in November against incumbent Democrat Joe Manchin. 

Manchin — who has a 7-point lead over Morrisey in a recent Public Policy Polling survey — is seen as a potentially key vote for Trump’s Supreme Court nominee. Manchin, Morrisey and Justice all garnered low favorability numbers in the same poll.

At an April stop — which also took place in White Sulphur Springs — Trump took aim at Manchin on immigration and a no vote on a federal tax reform package. 

Later on during the Tuesday event, Trump also made note of reporters working in the back of the room as he touted economic numbers, including unemployment claims, African-American and Hispanic unemployment rates.

“The fake news — they are all back there,” he said, referring to the back of the banquet room where local and national media were gathered to cover the event.  

The president’s pointed comments on the news media come just days after a gunman entered the newsroom of The Capital Gazette in Annapolis, Md., and killed five people, including four journalists and a salesperson. 

Earlier Tuesday, Trump issued a proclamation calling for all U.S. flags on public grounds to be flown at half-staff until sunset as “a mark of solemn respect” for those killed.

Tuesday marked Trump’s fifth trip to the state since taking office in January 2017.

Donald Trump Jr. to Campaign in W.Va. for Morrisey, as Dad’s Takeover of GOP Continues

West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, the Republican candidate trying to unseat incumbent Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin in November’s election, is bringing Donald Trump Jr. to the state on Tuesday to rally GOP voters.

Numbers-wise, it makes sense for President Trump to send his son as a proxy to a state campaign. West Virginians voted 69 percent for Trump Jr.’s father in 2016, and there is no state where the president enjoys a higher approval rating.

The larger question is: 500 days into the Trump presidency, is the mainline GOP becoming more like Trump, or is Trump becoming more like the mainline GOP? Or is there a distinction any more?

Trump has never been a true conservative; he is an opportunist. He was a Democrat who switched to Republican who switched to Independent who switched back to Democrat who switched back to Republican. During the 2016 campaign, he ran and won as a protectionist, anti-immigrant populist.

Once elected, and despite historically low public approval ratings, Trump apparently believed his coattails were longer than they actually were and endorsed a reliably mainstream but uninspiring Republican — Luther Strange — in the 2017 Alabama special election to fill the U.S. Senate vacancy left by Jeff Sessions, when Trump appointed him Attorney General.

Alabama Republicans went rogue and rejected Trump, and Strange, and nominated perhaps the 21st-century’s worst major political candidate so far — Roy Moore. As soon as Moore won, Trump deleted earlier tweets endorsing Strange and went all-in for Moore, calling him a “really great guy.” This quick-change endorsement did not sway Alabama voters, who elected Democrat Doug Jones, becoming Alabama’s first Democratic senator in 25 years.

Senate elections in 2017 and 2018 matter greatly for the Republicans, because it looks increasingly likely that Democrats may take control of the House. It is vitally important for Republicans to hold control of the Senate.

As such, the 2018 Senate election in West Virginia is a really big deal.

Manchin entered the Senate in the 2010 special election following the death of Sen. Robert Byrd. Manchin was easily re-elected in 2012 with 60 percent of the vote.

Though he is a Democrat, Manchin looks conservative on many issues, including abortion and gun-control, aligning with the majority of West Virginia voters.

But, on the seating chart of the U.S. Senate, Manchin is a D, and the White House desperately wants an R in that seat.

If the White House learned any lesson from the Alabama debacle, it is: Eliminate the nut job first. If Trump had campaigned actively against Moore in addition to backing Strange, a Republican might be in that Senate seat today.

So, in West Virginia, rather than actively picking either Morrisey or his Republican primary challenger, Rep. Evan Jenkins, Trump targeted former convict/former coal baron Don Blankenship, even though he styled himself as “Trumpier than Trump.”

“Don Blankenship, currently running for Senate, can’t win the General Election in your State … No way! Remember Alabama,” Trump tweeted.

Whether due to Trump’s tweet or Blankenship’s toxic campaign, Blankenship finished third and Morrisey, a traditional Republican, won.

Now, Trump is all-in for Morrisey, and is sending son Don Jr. to appear at a press conference with Morrisey on Tuesday at the West Virginia GOP headquarters in Charleston.

Morrisey is surely happy to receive a sprinkling of Trump fairy dust over his campaign in one of the states where it may actually be beneficial. But he is unlikely to restyle himself into the kind of raging populist Trump was during the 2016 campaign, where he channeled dangerous demagogues like Huey Long.

Yet he may not have to. Trump has so co-opted the GOP that it no longer resembles the party of Goldwater, Reagan or either Bush. Trump has run up the national debt, governed as a mercantilist — not a free-trader — on international trade, exited multiple international accords that conservatives backed as a way of showing American global leadership and has remained anti-immigrant, shutting down the path to the American dream that conservatives have extolled.

At the 500-day mark of his presidency, writes Axios: “Trump’s hijacking of the formerly conservative GOP is complete — an astonishing accomplishment. The majority party in America is fully defined by his policies, his popularity with the base, his facts-be-damned mentality, his ability to control and quiet virtually all Republican elected officials.”

Gallup reports that Trump’s own-party approval rating at the 500-day mark of his presidency is 87 percent, second-highest in history behind only George W. Bush.

Republicans all over the country have fallen in line behind Trump, despite his many obvious personal shortcomings and lack of interest in policy or much of anything else besides Trump.

Will Don Jr.’s presence on Tuesday be enough for Morrisey to push him over the top against Manchin? Wherever you are, it’s always tough to beat an incumbent and Manchin has been a successful senator for West Virginia. A recent Democratic poll shows Manchin with a 12-point lead over Morrisey, reports Politico.

But is that edge based on Manchin’s record? No, writes Politico. It’s Because Manchin has been successful in portraying himself as a Democratic ally of Trump.

Which means: Regardless of whether Morrisey or Manchin wins in November, Trump wins.

Frank Ahrens, a West Virginia native and WVU graduate, is a public relations executive in Washington D.C. He was a Washington Post journalist for 18 years and is the author of “Seoul Man: A Memoir of Cars, Culture, Crisis, and Unexpected Hilarity Inside a Korean Corporate Titan.” Contact him at www.frankahrens.com.

Congressman: President Trump to Return to West Virginia

West Virginia Republican Congressman Evan Jenkins said President Donald Trump will visit West Virginia for the second time this year.

Jenkins said he’ll join the president for a scheduled roundtable in Greenbrier County on Thursday, April 5. A statement released by Jenkins’ office didn’t disclose the location or reason for the president’s visit.

Jenkins said the visit will highlight the president’s “work to create jobs and opportunities for West Virginians and all Americans.”

In early February, Trump spoke at the House and Senate Republicans’ annual legislative retreat at the Greenbrier resort.

Jenkins, who is running for the U.S. Senate seat held by Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin, said this will be the Republican president’s fourth visit to his district in southern West Virginia.

Annotation: Donald Trump Jr.'s Emails About Russia Meeting

Donald Trump Jr. tweeted images of emails regarding his 2016 meeting with a Russian lawyer on Tuesday.

An intermediary said he could connect Trump Jr. with people who had information “that would incriminate Hillary [Clinton]… and would be very useful to your father.” 

Trump Jr. agreed to the meeting, which former campaign chairman Paul Manafort and Trump son-in-law and adviser Jared Kushner also attended in June 2016. They met with Russian attorney Natalia Veselnitskaya, whom Trump Jr. said ultimately did not provide the promised material on Clinton.

In the emails, Trump Jr. corresponds with publicist Rob Goldstone, who represents the son of an Azerbaijan-born billionaire who has also done business with the Trumps. Trump Jr. forwarded the thread to Kushner and Manafort.

Here, the text appears in chronological order; headers were added by NPR. See the text as tweeted here, combined into one pdf. NPR journalists have annotated the text below with context and analysis.

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