Ohio Valley Coal Industry Braces As COVID-19 Impacts Electricity Demand, International Exports

As states across the Ohio Valley order the closure of non-essential businesses to help slow the spread of the coronavirus, coal mines will remain open. But as with many industries, the global pandemic is straining the coal sector, and some experts say the already struggling industry could face intense challenges in the months ahead as electricity demand flags and international exports stall. 

“What we’re going to see is a big drop in Q2, that is without question,” said Brian Lego, referencing the coming second quarter reports, which will reflect the stark new economic reality. Lego is an economic forecaster who studies the coal industry with the Bureau of Business and Economic Research at West Virginia University.

As the economy grinds to a halt, Lego said, demand for electricity is falling. While the use of coal for electricity has fallen in recent years, 23.5 percent of all utility generation came from burning coal in 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. That could be a challenge for a state like West Virginia, where a significant portion of its coal is burned by utilities. 

The industry is also facing challenges in exporting coal overseas, including to China, which was hit hard by COVID-19. 

“Export markets are crippled right now,” Lego said. 

Similar grim economics apply to metallurgical, or steel coal. As factories, including car manufacturers pause production, demand for parts is also impacted. While Lego cautioned much remains unknown in this fast-moving situation, so far, the calculus doesn’t look great. 

“So both here and abroad it’s a really complicated situation, and it’s not what I would consider positive in any way shape or form,” he said. 

Relief Requested

These economic circumstances prompted the national coal trade group, the National Mining Association, to ask Congress for help, saying a strong coal industry was critical for national energy security. 

“In a perilous time, the essential work of our coal miners to produce the fuel to keep the

lights on and homes warm and the certainty and security provided by coal power is just

what we need to keep the country moving forward,” NMA president Rich Nolan said in a letter to Congress and the White House.

The letter included a request for $220 million in relief for taxes that fund the Black Lung Disability Trust Fund, which supports 25,700 disabled coal miners and their dependents, as well as a 50 percent cut in fees for environmental reclamation. 

“It just seems like the industry sees an opportunity with the coronavirus pandemic to try once again to shed liability for miners’ health and any environmental damage that they’ve done in the region,” said Wes Addington, executive director of the Appalachian Citizens’ Law Center, which represents coal miners in black lung benefits cases. 

In a rebuke to the NMA’s request, bipartisan leaders in the House Natural Resources Committee urged congressional leaders to reject the mining industry’s demands, saying, “It is disappointing that the coal industry is advocating for policies that would not help the tens of thousands of sick, retired, and out-of-work miners that need immediate help and the communities that are still recovering from the legacy of environmental damage caused by the coal industry.”

Phil Smith, a spokesperson for the United Mine Workers of America, called the NMA’s request a “disservice to roll back contributions” to the Black Lung Disability Trust Fund and Abandoned Mine Land Fund. That fund supports reclamation of damaged land that was abandoned before 1977.

“Those are very critical and important economic drivers for people in the coalfields,” he said. 

Senate Democrats Monday blocked a controversial omnibus bill put forward by Republican leaders.  That proposal could have provided every American with a modest direct payment and would also have authorized the Treasury Department to distribute $150 billion in loans to industry, including the coal industry, at its discretion. The only industry specifically mentioned in the response bill was the airline industry; the concerns of other industry groups that have sought aid, including the NMA, were not addressed. 

‘Essential’ Businesses

As of Monday, March 23, Kentucky, Ohio and West Virginia have ordered residents to avoid unnecessary activities and gatherings. Non-essential businesses have been ordered to close. 

Coal mines, as key pieces of energy infrastructure, will remain open. 

“Coal, absolutely, has an essential classification to West Virginia,” said West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice during a March 20 press conference. “I’m going to tell you, without any question, without coal-fired generation today, our country would be in big trouble.”

The governor was reacting, in part, to an order by Pennsylvania, which temporarily shuttered coal mines. However, on Saturday, March 21, the state classified coal mines “essential” and they remain in operation. 

In Kentucky, mine safety classroom training is suspended and a one-month extension of all training expiration dates has been granted, according to John Mura, spokesperson for the Kentucky Energy and Environment Cabinet. As of Friday, March 20, he said no operational changes had been implemented by the state at coal mines across the state. 

One company, Blackhawk Mining, LLC, announced Friday it would furlough employees at all of its eight mining complexes in West Virginia and Kentucky beginning Monday, March 23 for two weeks in response to the coronavirus pandemic. The company employs about 2,300 people. 

During the shutdown employees will not be paid, but will continue to be covered under employee benefit programs including health insurance, according to a press release from the company. 

“We have been following the CDC’s recommended guidelines for minimizing workplace impacts and have been actively encouraging sick employees to stay home,” said Blackhawk President Jesse Parrish, in a press release. “Despite our best efforts, and considering the growing rate of infection, our company feels compelled to take additional measures.”

Requests for comment from both the Kentucky Coal Association and West Virginia Coal Association were not returned. 

While many coal mines remain open, the UMWA’s Smith said the union is urging mine operators to increase sanitizing spaces where miners often interact including locker rooms, changing facilities and bath houses. 

Miners are encouraged to practice social distancing, when possible, wipe down equipment before and after shifts and wear personal protective gear, including face masks. 

Smith said the UMWA is also concerned for the health and safety of many of its retirees, many of whom are elderly and have compromised lung function due to black lung. 

 

Coal Production Report Predicts Downturn in the Industry

A new economic forecast shows the recent uptick in coal production is expected to level out during the next two years and decline precipitously during the next two decades.

The annual coal production report, released today by West Virginia University’s Bureau of Business and Economic Research, shows the recent uptick in coal production will be short-lived.

The last few years have been a bright spot for West Virginia coal. Production has increased nearly 27 percent since the middle of 2016, driven largely by an uptick in coal exports to places like India, Brazil and Ukraine.

By contrast, the report forecasts a 3 percent drop in coal production during the next two years, with production leveling out around 85 million tons of coal mined by 2020.

“Weakening export activity will likely drive most of the anticipated drop in production through 2020, but the retirement and/or conversion of several gigawatts worth of coal-fired generating capacity that sources coal from West Virginia mines will also account for some of this decline,” the report states.

Coal production in both the northern and southern parts of the state will be affected. But northern West Virginia, which largely produces thermal coal for use by U.S. power plants, will be hit harder.

“Southern West Virginia’s production should be buoyed to some extent by export demand, but output is expected to trend lower during the outlook as a growing portion of the region’s reserves become too expensive to recover,” Brian Lego, co-author of the study and a research assistant professor at WVU, said in a press release.

From 2020 through 2040, the analysts expect production to continue to drop, hitting 66 million tons by 2040, a 17 percent decline from 2016.

The report also modeled how a $15 tax per ton of carbon dioxide would affect coal production across the state. The authors found a carbon tax would decrease production by an additional 23 million tons of coal by 2040, bringing production to 43 million tons, or a little more than half of what was produced in 2016.

In addition, the report analyzed the impact of both high and low demand from international export markets.

“For example, higher-than-expected global demand for coal would cause mined tonnage to remain around 90 million short tons through 2030 before falling to 79 million tons by the end of the (next) decade,” the study stated. “In an environment of appreciably weaker export demand, whether due to more aggressive reductions in coal use or some other underlying cause, production would plunge to 65 million short tons by the mid-2020s and roughly 53 million short tons by 2040.”

Report: Morgantown Cost of Living 3.7 Percent Above National Average

A study conducted by West Virginia University’s Bureau of Business and Economic Research and the Council for Community and Economic Research says on average, the cost of living in and around Morgantown is 3.7 percent higher than the national average. That’s up a half a percentage point from the previous year. 

Two major spending areas — housing and health care costs – didn’t contribute to the increase, but miscellaneous goods and services- things like restaurant meals, clothing, and entertainment- account for most of the hike.  

In a press release Monday, BBER director John Deskins says housing costs actually dropped in the Morgantown area by more than 7 percent over the past year. During that same time period, health care costs declined by nearly 3 percent.

The report says Morgantown also has below-averages costs for groceries, transportation and utilities. 

Exit mobile version