Tag: A Blue State’s Road to Red

A new generation of West Virginia voters in search of a new party

On a national level, political watchers say West Virginia is on the verge of a big change, one that would pull the state from its traditionally Democratic roots and push it toward a future of Republican leaders and a new generation of young voters might be behind that change.

West Virginians are a proud people, proud most of all of their heritage. Almost any West Virginian can share his or her story of a parent or grandparent who came to the state to work in the factories, steel mills or coal mines to provide for their families.

But a part of that heritage is also political. And most West Virginians will tell you, their parents and grandparents voted blue.

“What we’re finding is when they say that they’re a Democrat, they argue well, my dad was a Democrat or my granddad was a Democrat,” said Dr. Robert Rupp, professor of history at West Virginia Wesleyan College. “There’s a reluctance, one, to break with that tradition and also a kind of continuance of what’s being handed down from generation to generation.”

Rupp said that has been the trend for at least three generations in West Virginia, my grandparents voted Democrat, my parents voted Democrat so I vote Democrat.

But in the state, the tendency to vote blue is beginning to change, at least at the federal level. The state hasn’t been won by a Democratic candidate for President since 1996 with Bill Clinton, two of the three seats in the U.S. House are held by Republicans and, next year, the state could possibly see its first Republican U.S. Senator since the late 1950s.

“So, there’s a real question over whether these people are ultimately going to change their identity and become Republicans or whether there is enough of the Democratic Party in West Virginia’s heritage that they will continue to be Democrats,” said National Political Correspondent for The Washington Post Karen Tumulty, “at least in name.”

Tumulty’s article, “A Blue State’s Road to Red,” focuses on the transition in party power in southern West Virginia.

“West Virginians are so conservative they vote Democrat out of tradition,” said state Republican Party Chairman Conrad Lucas.

Lucas said that tradition is what’s hindering his party’s success at the state and local levels. West Virginians are so proud of their heritage they don’t want to let it go, but Lucas said his party is slowly starting to see a change.

“I come from a long line of Lincoln County Democrats myself, so we see younger people in West Virginia being more willing to vote Republican than those who have been voting Democrat for so many generations, for election after election and wanting to stay with their party,” he said, “but it’s younger folks who realizing that the values of the national and state Democrat Party don’t align with their belief systems.”

Rupp said nearly 60 percent of a person’s party identification is based on family, but in West Virginia, the inclination to vote blue is starting to change, in part, Rupp said just as Lucas sees it, because of a new generation of voters. Millennials.

"What we seem to be finding is that most Americans, but particularly this generation, are socially liberal and conservative on fiscal issues. Mainly, they want a small government and lower taxes and they want that same small government to keep out of their private affairs." – Dr. Robert Rupp

“What we seem to be finding is that most Americans, but particularly this generation, are socially liberal and conservative on fiscal issues,” Rupp said. “Mainly, they want a small government and lower taxes and they want that same small government to keep out of their private affairs.”

“The difficulty is that neither the Republican nor Democratic Party appears to offer both of those conditions. So, we have a generation that’s kind of up for grabs. That’s skeptical.”

The transition, however, is happening at a slower rate than many other southern states that went through the same political shift decades ago. For example, Rupp said Georgia took less than a decade to transition from a solidly blue to solidly red state.

Part of the reason Rupp accounted to the age of the average West Virginian. If the party switch is being pushed by the young voter, with the oldest median age of any state in the country, it’s easy to see why the transition may take longer here than the rest of the south.

And then there’s participation. Tumulty said young, West Virginia voters’ participation rates are among the lowest in the nation.

“If you look at those voter turnout numbers, last year voter turnout among the young plummeted in West Virginia. Certainly, I talked to young people, I saw young people, but they more than any element of the population in West Virginia seem to be the ones who are just turning their backs on politics,” she said, “and I think those voter turnout numbers speak volumes to that.”

Low turnout may be because young voters feel outnumbered in an older state or maybe because they don’t seem to fit with either party. Rupp said either could be true, but if the parties can get Millenials involved in the election process again, he believes we will see a change in results.

“I think that is going to contribute, maybe not for a transition from Democrat to totally Republican, but it will mean more divided ballots. It will mean voting will be based on pragmatic issues rather than ideological issues or party issues,” Rupp said.

“I think that way, if we do see this transition happening, the key role will be what is this generation of young voters who’s basically parents and grandparents continued allegiance to the Democratic Party and now they’re questioning if that allegiance should go. I think the fact that we have a split level shows that we are living in very interesting times.”

Rupp said another contributing factor to the change in politics for young voters is the decreasing importance young people see in unions.

Once a major part of the state’s economic and political processes, Rupp said unions are becoming less important as we move away from an industry based economy, having less influence over a new generation in the workforce.

W.Va.’s political center shifting north from a once booming south

Southern West Virginia has traditionally been a Democratic stronghold, but an article in The Washington Post said that is starting to change.

With a decline in the coal industry’s production and a President enacting stronger regulations on it, the politics are shifting toward the right, at least, that’s what the article claims. But can it be said that a trend in southern West Virginia is actually happening across the entire state?

“Just about everybody you talk to can tell you of a grandfather or a great grandfather who actually came to West Virginia to make a life for themselves and their family and find economic opportunity in the coal mines,” said Karen Tumulty, national political correspondent for The Washington Post.

She spent time this summer traveling southern West Virginia, talking to people.

“The coal miner is just such a part of the shared heritage of West Virginia. The industry has a significance, I think, that goes much, much deeper than economic statistics will tell,” she said.

But as the industry struggles, West Virginians often look to place the blame, and State Democratic Party Chairman Larry Puccio said today, that blame is being shifted to Washington.

“The truth of the matter is I think that West Virginians believe not only the President is not doing enough to support the coal industry,” he said, “but they truly believe the President, with some of his beliefs and restrictions are harming the industry.”

Puccio said leaders from his party inside the beltway are making it clear they stand against the President and his position on coal, but with each election, the Democratic Party in West Virginia appears to be growing weaker as more and more Republicans are taking office. At least, that’s how Tumulty depicted the party in her article, “A Blue State’s Road to Red.”

“The southern part of the state has traditionally been the most deeply Democratic part of the state,” Tumulty said. “That is where the Democratic Party has always gotten the bulk of the votes with which it won statewide.”

But she added that trend is changing.

At the federal level, West Virginians are slowly turning away from their Democratic roots and voting Republican. She wrote, “What’s happening in West Virginia runs against the tide nationally, and even more, against the pull of its own history.”

“If I have difficulty with the story, it is it’s concentration on the narrative in southern West Virginia,” said Dr. Robert Rupp, professor of history at West Virginia Wesleyan College.

"Fifty years ago, southern West Virginia was the key economic driver, it was the key to the Democratic Party, it held political power, but now in the 21st century, we have seen a rapid decline in all those factors in terms of population, in terms of the economy and in terms of political clout." – Dr. Robert Rupp

He questioned Tumulty’s ability to assert the entire state is experiencing this change in party when she focused only on one region.

“Now, 50 years ago, southern West Virginia was the key economic driver, it was the key to the Democratic Party, it held political power,” he said, “but now in the 21st century, we have seen a rapid decline in all those factors in terms of population, in terms of the economy and in terms of political clout.”

“So, if you just visit this one section where there is decline in West Virginia, it’s an interesting narrative to ask how those citizens are reacting, but I think it’s a warped strategy because you’re ignoring what’s happening in the rest of the state.”

Rupp said the political center of the state is moving in a northeastern direction. Earl Ray Tomblin is the first governor since 1965 to truly come from southern West Virginia and today, both the state House and Senate are lead by northerners.

“If you’re really talking about looking at an entire state, then why visit those counties that have lost population rather than visit those counties that have gained in population and gained in the economy,” Rupp said. “There’s an entire picture of West Virginia that is lost to a national audience when the focus of outside journalists are simply on one area in the southern part.”

Tumulty counters by noting she interviewed members of the Governor’s staff who represent the entire state, both U.S. Senators who, again, together represent the entire state and writes of the booming shale industry in the northern counties and a panhandle thriving as suburb of D.C.

“What I was looking for was a way of explaining the transformation and again most of that transformation has been happening in the very deeply Democratic bastions of coal country,” she said.

Rupp, however, said he does agree with Tumulty’s thesis that the state is transitioning between the two political parties, after all the 3rd Congressional District is the only remaining seat in the U.S. House held by a Democrat in West Virginia.

Historically, he said, West Virginia is joining in with its southern cousins who followed the trend decades ago, but believes the other regions of West Virginia are still important to understanding the political change.

“I think if we really want to understand this transition, we have to be able to examine and explore what is happening politically in the other sections of the state, particularly in the panhandle,” Rupp said. “That’s the fastest growing region and any political party that is able to get the edge in that region will probably dominate the state just as the Democrats were able to get the edge in the southern part of the state and were able to dominate the state for such a long time.”

Tumulty said West Virginia will be a state to watch come the 2016 election. She contended there’s still a chance the right type of Democrat could win the states vote for President and make a difference, even though it only carries 5 votes.

“Well, if Al Gore had had those five votes he’d be building his presidential library about now.”
 

West Virginia Slowly Becoming a Politically Southern State

There’s always been the debate, to which region does West Virginia belong? Former Senator Robert C. Byrd was famously quoted as saying West Virginia is the most northern southern state, the most southern northern state, the most eastern western state and the most western eastern state. Many West Virginians will tell you, we belong with everyone and yet, we belong with no one.

So, when an article in The Washington Post depicted West Virginia as a strong blue state slowly becoming red, a phenomenon not unfamiliar to southern states, state leaders on the Democratic side were up in arms against the claim.

“In this past election, of all elections in the state of West Virginia, the fact is that Democrats won 67 percent of all the races which left the Republican Party to win 33 percent,” said Democratic Party Chairman Larry Puccio. “So, there is not a question that it is a Democratic state.”

However, Dr. Robert Rupp, history professor at West Virginia Wesleyan College, said, historically, we’re following that trend the other southern states took decades ago.

“The situation in West Virginia since, basically starting in 2000, is a slow and sustained transition from an extremely loyal Democrat state to a Republican state. From a blue state to a red state,” Rupp said.

“However, what’s interesting about the transition is that unlike other states in the south; let’s use Georgia for example in which the transition happened in less than a decade, in West Virginia the transition is slower and at different levels.”

In the southern United States, once known as the “Solid South” because of the Democratic Party’s political stronghold, things began to change in the early 1960s. The region became more urbanized and could no longer hold their ground on racial segregation. And they started voting Republican at the so called “top of the ticket” for President.

This graph details the voting history of West Virginians in presidential elections from 1968 to 2012.

“I think that is the trend that we have seen through much of the south which was very traditionally Democratic, which began to vote Republican at the top of the ticket starting with Richard Nixon,” said National Political Correspondent for The Washington Post Karen Tumulty. “Ultimately, for a lot of those states, for my home state of Texas, Alabama, Mississippi, they have gone very deeply red.”

Tumulty grew up in Texas and said the people she knew more than 30 years ago as Democrats now identify themselves as Republicans. The journalist traveled to southern West Virginia four times over the summer researching her article, “A Blue State’s Road to Red.”

“The one thing that was beginning to show up nationally in every poll was that American voters have never had a lower regard for the federal government,” Tumulty said.

And that low regard, she said, was nowhere more evident than in southern West Virginia.

“Most of that transformation, the most dramatic change has come about in coal country which was so reliably Democratic just up and down the ticket and really has undergone a great change and continues to,” she added.

In 2000, West Virginia began joining in on the trend, voting for George W. Bush in two elections followed by John McCain and Mitt Romney on the Presidential ticket.

State Republican Party Chairman Conrad Lucas said that’s how it starts. The party switch starts with voters at the office of President and slowly trickles down to the state and local levels.

“It’s definitely a top down voting trend as opposed to bottom up. Much like what was written in The Washington Post, there are still county courthouses where there aren’t Republicans elected,” Lucas said. “There are still counties where it is very difficult to find a Republican to run for the House of Delegates or for any of the county offices despite the fact that federally we are so solidly red now.”

“So, seeing that this trend is happening in the exact same sociological and political manner in which it did in other states indicates that we are no different than those other states in many ways,” he added. “Politically, the trends are what they are and we’re certainly following a historical pattern.”

Puccio agreed, we are following a historical pattern, just not the same one Lucas sees.

“When folks are really down on the individual that’s running for President that does harm the rest of the party and I think some of that showed up here,” he said. “There’s not a question that the favorability for our President is not high here in West Virginia.”

Rupp, however, is not sure. He believes that trickle down pattern will follow in time.

“West Virginia still has a two to one Democratic edge in registration, but the story in West Virginia is a state that’s two to one Democratic is switching over to Republican,” Rupp said. “Now, what’s even more interesting is that when you go down to Wyoming County, it’s seven to one, nine to one Democrats.”

“Virtually everyone in that county is registered as a Democrat, but they’re not voting as a Democrat.”

Rupp said on the federal level, West Virginians are voting more and more to send Republicans to Washington, with the exception of Senator Joe Manchin. Rupp admitted though, Manchin isn’t much of an exception. 

“In America, there are three political parties,” Rupp said. “There’s the Republican Party, the Democratic Party and the West Virginia Democrats, and I say that because West Virginia Democrats have been able to keep control on the state level because, one, it’s a huge, big tent in which you can have very conservative members feel comfortable in the Democratic Party as well as liberals.”

“For that reason we can see the election of someone like Joe Manchin even though the state seems to be shifting in a Republican direction.”

Tumulty said as she traveled the southern West Virginia, she too could tell West Virginia Democrats were different, but that observation only reminded her of the transition she witnessed in Texas years ago.
 

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